top of page

Dakar 2027 Weather: Frost at Night, 30 °C by Day

Writer: Sven Syfrig
Sven Syfrig
42 minutes ago
10 min read

The Dakar 2027 weather will be defined by cold nights, not by rain. Around Bouarfa and Zagora, January nights average about 2 °C according to climate normals and the nearest weather stations, with frost possible, while a heatwave in Agadir reached 30.6 °C in 2024. From 2022 to 2025 almost every camp stayed practically dry. January 2026 was the great exception, with very heavy rain in Agadir and snow in the Atlas.


We built this study to prepare our own service crew for the new route from Portugal to Morocco. For each camp, we looked at exactly the days a service crew spends there, in every January from 2022 to 2026. Small towns have no records of their own, so many values come from nearby stations or forecasts, and we say so in each section. This is a look at past weather, not a forecast. Reliable forecasts for the rally will only exist from late December.


Chart of Dakar 2027 weather by camp: average day and night temperatures in January from Loulé to Marrakech, with frost risk in Bouarfa and Zagora

What Is the Weather Like at the Dakar 2027?


  • Cold nights are the main factor to plan for. The climate normal for Bouarfa is 1.9 °C at night, with a record low of minus 8 °C. Ouarzazate, our reference station for Zagora and 400 m higher, averaged 2.6 °C from 2022 to 2025 and dropped to minus 1.1 °C in 2025.

  • Days are mild to warm. Averages run from 14 °C in Bouarfa to 24 °C in Agadir, Smara and Marrakech. Agadir hit 30.6 °C during a heatwave in 2024.

  • The swing between day and night is huge. In Agadir and Marrakech, 25 °C in the afternoon and 7 °C at night is not unusual.

  • Rain is the exception, but a serious one. 2022 to 2025 were close to dry at all camps. 2026 was not.

  • Smara brings wind and dust. Trade winds of 30 to 48 km/h with haze and dust on several days, measured at Laayoune on the coast.

  • The days around the ferry were calm. Gusts at Nador never exceeded 41 km/h on 10 and 11 January in any of the five years.


Algarve Weather in January: Loulé, 5 to 10 January

Loulé can expect mild days and cool nights, with about 17 °C by day and 9 °C at night on average from 2022 to 2025, measured at Faro Airport. The January normal is 16.3 °C by day and 8.3 °C at night, with 49 mm of rain on 6 days. Loulé sits higher and further inland, so clear nights there are colder than in Faro.


  • 2026: 16.3 °C day, 9.0 °C night (full month), lowest 4.2 °C, 142.3 mm in the month. Storm Francis from 2 January, with 101.9 mm in one day at Faro Airport, then storm Goretti on 8 and 9 January.

  • 2025: 18.0 °C day, 11.2 °C night, lowest 8 °C, 3 days of light rain, thunderstorm on 5 January, gusts of 55 km/h.

  • 2024: 15.3 °C day, 7.3 °C night, lowest 4.5 °C, 3 days of light rain, the coldest week of the five years, with fog.

  • 2023: 18.3 °C day, 12.2 °C night, lowest 9 °C, 2 days of light rain.

  • 2022: 17.0 °C day, 7.0 °C night, lowest 3.7 °C, dry, with cool nights.


Ferry and Nador Weather: 10 to 11 January

The days around the crossing were almost always dry, with about 20 °C by day and 6 °C at night at Nador from 2022 to 2025, and gusts never above 41 km/h in five years. Melilla on the coast is about 4 °C warmer at night than this station. We found no data on sea state in the Alboran Sea or on ferry cancellations, so the gusts below describe the Moroccan shore, not the crossing itself.


  • 2026: 16.7 °C day, 5.7 °C night, lowest 3.3 °C, dry, gust of 37 km/h.

  • 2025: 21.7 °C day, 6.2 °C night, lowest 5.7 °C, dry, gusts of 41 km/h on 11 January.

  • 2024: 17.7 °C day, 7.4 °C night, lowest 6.1 °C, 0.4 mm overnight.

  • 2023: 20.7 °C day, 2.8 °C night, dry and calm. The reading of 0.0 °C looks like a measuring error.

  • 2022: 20.1 °C day, 4.8 °C night, lowest 4.4 °C, dry, gust of 41 km/h on 11 January.


Bouarfa Weather in January: The Coldest Camp, 11 to 14 January

Bouarfa is likely the coldest camp, with a climate normal of 13.9 °C by day and 1.9 °C at night, 9.6 mm of rain and a record low of minus 8 °C. There are no daily records for Bouarfa online, so we combined forecasts from the Moroccan weather service with measurements from Errachidia and Oujda. Bouarfa is 2 to 4 °C cooler than Errachidia, so nights of 0 to 2 °C with frost are realistic, and on cold front days the high stays around 10 °C.


  • 2026: forecast 11.8 °C day, 2.5 °C night. Frost from 11 to 13 January, strong gusts on 13 January, fog, dry.

  • 2025: forecast 13.5 °C day, 2.0 °C night. Oujda measured minus 1.2 °C. Cold front on 13 and 14 January, highs of only 8 to 10 °C, black ice on the high plateaus.

  • 2024: forecast 18.3 °C day, 3.0 °C night. Warm and dry, with morning frost.

  • 2023: forecast 15 °C day, 5 °C night (12 January only). Local frost.

  • 2022: Errachidia measured 15.4 °C day, 4.5 °C night. Oujda measured minus 2.3 °C. Dry, with frost on 12 and 13 January.


Zagora Weather in January: 14 to 16 January

Ouarzazate, our reference station for Zagora, averaged about 18 °C by day and 3 °C at night from 2022 to 2025, with frost in the coldest years. It lies 400 m higher than Zagora, where days are usually 1 to 3 °C warmer. The January normal at Ouarzazate is 17.3 °C by day and 1.8 °C at night, with 5.5 mm of rain.


  • 2026: forecast 11 to 15 °C day, 1 °C night. Light rain on 14 January, snow in the High Atlas above 1,300 m, strong gusts with dust in the south.

  • 2025: 14.9 °C day, 1.9 °C night, lowest minus 1.1 °C, dry, cold snap with frost on 16 January.

  • 2024: 20.0 °C day, 3.7 °C night, lowest 2.0 °C, very dry.

  • 2023: 20.4 °C day, 3.3 °C night, lowest 3.0 °C, dry.

  • 2022: 16.2 °C day, 1.3 °C night, lowest 0.0 °C, dry and calm.


Agadir Weather in January: Rest Day Camp, 16 to 18 January

Agadir averaged about 24 °C by day and 8 °C at night from 2022 to 2025, but the daytime highs of no other camp vary more from year to year. Measured at Al Massira Airport. The January normal is 21.9 °C by day and 7.1 °C at night, with 32 to 45 mm of rain on about 3 days.


  • 2026: about 17 to 18 °C day, 8 to 12 °C night, showers, wind of 47 to 61 km/h on 17 January. Highest January rainfall in the station records we found, at 76 mm.

  • 2025: 19.5 °C day, 6.2 °C night, lowest 5.7 °C, dry, cool and damp.

  • 2024: 28.2 °C day, 11.8 °C night, highest 30.6 °C, dry. A heatwave, with a January record of 32.2 °C that month.

  • 2023: 21.3 °C day, 6.7 °C night, lowest 6 °C, dry, with haze.

  • 2022: 25.3 °C day, 7.4 °C night, lowest 6.8 °C, dry and warm.


Smara Weather in January: Wind and Dust, 18 to 22 January

Smara brings about 24 °C by day, realistic inland nights of 7 to 10 °C, and trade winds with dust. There are no daily records for Smara online, so the yearly values come from Laayoune on the coast, where nights are warmer. The climate normal for Smara is 23.2 °C by day and 10.0 °C at night, with 2.9 mm of rain and a record low of 3.0 °C.

  • 2026: forecast 18 to 20 °C day, 7 to 12 °C night. Rain forecast for 18 and 19 January, strong gusts, unusually wet and cool.

  • 2025: 25.0 °C day, 12.8 °C night, lowest 9 °C, dry, fog on 20 January.

  • 2024: 25.4 °C day, 14.2 °C night, highest 30 °C, dry and very warm.

  • 2023: 22.2 °C day, 13.4 °C night, traces of rain, wind up to 46 km/h, haze or dust.

  • 2022: 24.6 °C day, 13.8 °C night, traces of rain, trade wind up to 48 km/h, dust likely.


Marrakech Weather in January: The Finish, 22 to 23 January

Marrakech averaged about 24 °C by day and 9 °C at night from 2022 to 2025, measured at Menara Airport. The January normal is 19.1 °C by day and 5.9 °C at night, with 25 mm of rain on 3 days.


  • 2026: forecast 17 to 18 °C day, 9 to 10 °C night. Rain forecast on both days, snow forecast in the Atlas above 1,100 m, gusts of 75 to 90 km/h forecast in the south.

  • 2025: 25.0 °C day, 10.4 °C night, dry and warm.

  • 2024: 25.9 °C day, 7.0 °C night, a trace of rain, fog on 20 January.

  • 2023: 19.8 °C day, 6.0 °C night, dry, fog on 22 January.

  • 2022: 25.8 °C day, 11.0 °C night, dry and unusually warm.


What January 2026 Teaches Us

January 2026 shows why you should not plan for sunshine alone, even though four out of five years were quiet. Agadir recorded 76 mm against a normal of about 32 mm. Faro recorded 142.3 mm against a normal of 49 mm, and the Portuguese weather service counted five named storms that month. The Tizi n'Tichka pass, the main road between Marrakech and Ouarzazate, closed on 3 and again on 20 January because of snow.


Forecasts for the last days of the route that January, from Smara to Marrakech, showed rain, strong gusts and snow in the Atlas. Rain also turns bivouac tracks and dry riverbeds into mud quickly.


What to Pack for the Dakar 2027

Our recommendation is simple: prepare for minus 5 °C at night and a wet, windy January like 2026, even though four of the last five years were dry.


  • Sleeping: a sleeping bag with a comfort range down to minus 5 °C and a mat with a high R value. Test every heater before you leave home.

  • Clothing: layers, with a down jacket, hat and gloves for evenings and mornings. Light work clothes and sun protection by day, because Agadir and Smara can reach 30 °C.

  • Rain and mud: rain gear, tarpaulins and ground protection for the workshop tent.

  • Wind and dust: store tools and spares dust tight, bring goggles and buffs, and double the guy lines on awnings and gazebos.

  • Diesel and batteries: fill up with winter diesel and check generator batteries before Bouarfa.

  • Atlas crossings: check road conditions before every move over the Atlas.

  • Ferry: check the forecast for Levante wind in the Strait of Gibraltar two days before the crossing.

  • Forecasts: from late December, follow the Moroccan weather service for every stage.


Coming to watch? Visitors need the same layers. A warm afternoon in Marrakech says nothing about the night, and the Dakar 2027 dates show where the rally is on each day.


Our View

The cold will not become a problem as such. But you have to build factors like this into your planning and be well prepared for them. Alongside a cold drink, people will probably want hot drinks like tea as well. These are details, but they do a great deal for the mood in the team. In rough conditions especially, it is important to watch the mood and react to it. One thing is clear: none of us wants to wrench in the cold and sleep in a tent.


Our service crew will be in these camps in January 2027. You can follow our daily videos from inside the bivouac on YouTube. Our service packages for the Dakar 2027 are all taken. If you are planning the Dakar 2028, talk to us.


Sleep Warm Without a Tent

Our Rally Cabin is made for exactly these nights: an insulated, heated and ventilated sleeping cabin with two beds including bedding, a lockable door, power and light. There is nothing to set up or pack away. The cabin costs EUR 10,000 for the whole rally and can also be booked without a TimeOut Racing service package.


There are still cabins available for the Dakar 2027. Ask us about a cabin.


Frequently Asked Questions


What will the weather be like at the Dakar 2027?

Past Januaries suggest cold nights and mild to warm days. Nights average about 2 °C around Bouarfa and Zagora according to climate normals and nearby stations, while days average about 24 °C in Agadir, Smara and Marrakech. Rain was rare from 2022 to 2025, but January 2026 was very wet. Reliable forecasts will only exist from late December.


How cold does Morocco get at night in January?

Climate normals along the Dakar 2027 route range from about 2 °C to 10 °C, depending on altitude and location. At more than 1,100 m in Bouarfa the normal night is 1.9 °C, with a record low of minus 8 °C. Ouarzazate, the reference station for Zagora, averages 1.8 °C, Agadir and Marrakech 6 to 7 °C, and Smara 10.0 °C.


Does it rain in Morocco in January?

Yes, but rarely in the south, and when it does it can be heavy. Normal January rainfall is about 3 mm in Smara, 25 mm in Marrakech and 32 to 45 mm in Agadir. In January 2026 Agadir recorded 76 mm, the highest January value in the station records we found.


What is the weather like in the Algarve in January?

Mild and changeable, with a normal 16.3 °C by day and 8.3 °C at night at Faro, and 49 mm of rain on 6 days. January 2026 brought 142.3 mm and several storms.


Is the Sahara cold in January?

Yes, at night. Near the desert edge at Ouarzazate, nights average around 2 °C with occasional frost, while days reach 15 to 20 °C.


Will the weather affect the ferry from Algeciras to Nador?

Past Januaries give no sign of it, although we found no data on the crossing itself. At Nador, gusts never exceeded 41 km/h on 10 and 11 January in the last five years. Check the Levante forecast two days before the crossing.


How We Collected the Data

Dates follow the official Dakar 2027 calendar and the Dakar 2027 route. For each camp we used the nearest weather station, usually an airport, and these points matter when you read the numbers:


  • "Day" is the average daily high and "night" the average daily low during the days at each camp.

  • Small towns such as Bouarfa and Smara have no daily records online, so we used neighbouring stations and say so.

  • Where no daily values exist for 2026, we use the full month or the forecast of the Moroccan weather service, marked as such.

  • Daily values from tutiempo tend to run about 0.5 °C below official figures. The order of magnitude holds.

  • The marathon refuge near Dakhla (19 to 20 January) is not included, because assistance crews stay in Smara.


Sources


About the Author

Sven Syfrig is the founder and Team Principal of TimeOut Racing, a rally raid assistance team based in Wollerau, Switzerland. Founded in 2014, the team has supported private crews at the Dakar and Dakar Classic every year since 2022.

Comments

bottom of page